Friday, January 23, 2009
Etudes on macroeconomic.
When I read textbooks on macroeconomic, to me the course of lectures on psychiatry which I have heard in a youth is recollected, being the student of medical college. More often to me the classical kind of infringement of cogitative activity under the name "paralogic thinking" is recollected. It is such way of a reasoning as in a known joke: "the box square, means in it the round lays. Time round, means the orange. Well and time orange, means it an orange!"
Do not trust? Then I will result well-known all a vital situation: in one country have made for example one million cubes of business wood, have cast one million tons of pig-iron and have rolled up billion jars pork canned stewed meat and dairy condensed milk on a hunger case. We will admit, that all it costs billion dollars and makes gross a national product. Through pair tens years of GNP of this country has increased five times. Notably, on four billion it has been made erotic massages, manicures, pedicures, packings of hair and make-ups and on billion it is served visitors in peep-shows and top loess-cafe. Pig-iron, condensed milk and canned stewed meat have imported from abroad in wooden boxes which used instead of wood that have not cut and have not sawed. Have paid as usually dollars. Dollars have printed much that has sufficed on all.
What does the author of the normal textbook of macroeconomic in this case should explain to me? It should me show on fingers why in the country became unprofitable to make wood, pig-iron, canned stewed meat and condensed milk; why instead of them began to make erotic massages and why trading partners still accept for payment paper dollars and give for them canned stewed meat and condensed milk though these dollars except erotic massage are not provided by anything not so.
Instead the macroeconomic textbook explains to me, that the national income makes set of the goods made in the country and services in dollar expression, and erotic and make-upes dollars differ nothing from pig-iron, wood and meat-and-milk. And any children on the Internet tell to me about Bretton-Vudsky system about which in the textbook gu-gu, and swear mum, that if not it anybody these dollars would not take for any money.
Well it is fine, the author of the textbook - the diplomaed economist and the big scientist, we will believe to it and it is esteemed further. And further the big scientist writes about the offer of money, the mechanism of creation of a cash, the credit animator and obligatory norms of reservation for liquidity maintenance. We will admit, that when all country regularly pours pig-iron, saws wood, grows up pork and choped it in a canned meat, the obligatory norm of reservation would make like as 10 percent from the deposits of commercial bank put on the interest-free contribution in Central bank of the country.
Now we will imagine, that in the course of rendering and reception of erotic massages, manicures and make-ups the country population has fairly got hungry and wishes to have dinner nourishingly. But canned stewed meat and condensed milk from Greece as ill-luck would have it have not delivered, because Greeks have eaten her. And the too have not twirled, because Greek for the time being sufficed. And then under laws of the market the grub sharply raises in the price. Hungry managers, brokers, striptease performers and visagistes headlong rush in bank and without remainder take down all reserve cash to buy to devour. Naturally, according to the logic of the author of the textbook of a cash suffices only ten percent of the investors, come running the first. Other crowd drive away, while Central bank quickly will not print out of the missing sum somehow to feed the population - if not canned stewed meat though резаной with a paper with the image of the guarantor and watermarks.
All described above happens actually, is called as macroeconomic and it is possible.
There is a question to the author of the textbook: what mechanisms are somehow to counterbalance available GNP structure, that is to create comprehensible balance between real sector of economy and erotic? And here it appears - and authors of the textbook state it as an axiom - that any special mechanisms at all and are not necessary, because there is a universal mechanism under the name "market". The market is a mechanism of a global equilibration of a supply and demand, in which result the population makes that uses the greatest demand to receive the maximum profit. The enterprise profit appears the unique purpose of its existence is like already just as twice two four. Who with it does not agree - that clinical idiot.
Well it is fine still, it is good when the market has counterbalanced structure of economy with accent on pig-iron moulding, wood and canned stewed meat and with a damage for the erotic massage, which everyone can make to itself (himself) houses independently if very much will press. And what to make if an erotic component of economy has brought to nothing all real sector? And after all you will not forbid! For in a free society freedom of each manufacturer to make that to it will take in head, when will take in head and in any places legislatively taken away for this purpose is it the first and an inalienable law, and is not simple so, and according to the constitution. All that contradicts the constitution, is illegal. Accordingly, if in the textbook on macroeconomic will write, that the market law is a fiction, and that the manufacturer is obliged to make that that is required to a society not only today, but also tomorrow and in ten years, instead of that for what can be cut down grandmas directly now such textbook will unequivocally start up under a knife in all circulation.
But how to be in a situation when the deep sexual satisfaction stimulated the raised appetite, and to satisfy it there is nothing, for all population has taken a great interest in rendering of expensive and profitable sexual services, and the cheap popular meal in the Chinese buffet suddenly has unexpectedly ended? It appears, very simply. Such situation designate a word "crisis". At occurrence of this situation all start to panic amicably, nobody knows what to make, and all pretend, what even did not assume, that the such can happen.
Is useless to search also in the macroeconomic textbook such backbone for economic concept as bullshit. I will short explain an essence. We will admit, I live in five-storey building, and on the ground floor there lives the drunk by name of Petrovich with two daughters. Petrovich makes sour every day, on what lives not clearly. Once Petrovich comes to me and asks to lend to it on a wedding dress with a veil and three boxes of vodka with snack - the daughter in marriage to give out. With the promise to give within three years with monthly payment, under 20 % annual. Certainly, knowing Petrovich, I politely refuse to it, for I know, that neither a debt, nor percent on it to me сроду not увидать in a kind of the specific biography of the client.
Then Petrovich goes to commercial bank, and there it is given out easily by the desirable credit, the truth any more under 20, and under 40 percent, and Petrovich leaves in deep hard drinking. In the meantime the commercial bank packs promissory notes of five thousand such Petrovich in to a highly remunerative valuable paper and throws out it on a securities market where it buys, well for example, Banquo Tsentrale Italjano.
The chairman of this bank Chezare Lohanuchchi knows nothing the nobility about credit history of five thousand not drying out Petrovich. Therefore it, of course, a little chicken out for its Italian liver prompts to it, that correlation between profitableness of the financial tool and its risk rightholding opposite that which is thirsted by all other parts of an organism. But eventually greed wins, and a desired paper place in an investment portfolio with hope of that that the manager of credit department Mosintsestbanka has checked up credit history Petrovich and was convinced, that the debt with percent will be returned in time.
For Petrovich to start to pay under the credit, it is necessary to recollect at first, that it it in general once took, and for this purpose it would be good to sober up a little at least to begin with. But this question excites the chief of credit department Mosintsestbanka Kidalova and the chairman of same bank Razvodilkina least because they had time to remove the grandmas in Italian liras, lyres have translated in dollars, and it is possible already and not to search for dollars. After a while we learn from news about financial crisis in Italy. All above described process well-known in scientific circles under the name "financial globalisation" which is a part of the general globalisation of economic.
And here we again face paradox for the essence of the given macroeconomic phenomenon quite precisely speaks the term "bullshit", but this term as it is sad, at all does not belong to the dictionary of a macroeconomic science. And how it can belong to it even if the word "globalisation" to it not still belongs? In one textbook you will not read about the one who and as it is capable to supervise globalized economy in which the most powerful subjects of the market do business in the heterogeneous legislative environment, and their business just and was built so that this heterogeneity has helped them to leave from the governmental control and from tax obligations to receive superprofit. If such possibility was not available, all this globalisation would be not necessary to anybody, traditional international trade would suffice.
Certainly, in economy there is such concept as "investor's risk". But here again somehow - it is not written in the macroeconomic textbook, that risks happen very different. For example, happens, that all fairly ploughed, but business has not gone. But during the latest times it appears is much more often, that all business of the counterpart initially found room in a set of procedures, on which at you it is possible to borrow with the promise to return much more then to be washed off with money. Such business transaction is called in popular speech by a word "have thrown". That circumstances, that one participant of transaction is in Senegal, and another in Toronto, strongly facilitates process and causes by a life of weight of imitators. Therefore in this case it is necessary to speak "have not so simply thrown", and "have thrown globally".
If only bunko was an annoying exception to the rules then it is still fine. If at Mosincestbank have withdrawn the licence, to the Italian bank have paid damages, and Kidalov and Razvodilkin have sent on a tree felling together with Petrovich I would not write this article. But when manufacturing bullshits is put on an industrial stream in the stronghold of capitalism, in Connected, it is terrible to tell, States of America when impudent a bullshit is called as "a financial product", and its continuous sale by a dense stream is built in in world economic system should find this mechanism though any reflexion in economic textbooks?
For example, commercial bank Washington Mjuchual gives out the hypothecary credit under house purchase to the hard-working Mexican with excellent credit history. The bank is assured, that José-Carlos will not pump up and will pay all sum, therefore the credit to it stands out under 6 difficult annual interest rates (that means approximately two costs of the house paid for twenty years) and such credit is called as top-quality.
And then the smoked negress comes to the same bank from a ghetto by name of Shanikva, not working in the life day, short of prostitution and buying up of the stolen. She is a single mother of four children, and the State of Louisiana to it pays the grant to each child separately because at them different daddies from whom three are imprisoned for a long time, and have killed one one year ago. Shanikva the credit too wants. As the borrower does not have either credit history, or brains, and in all organism only genital bodies the risk of nonpayment considerably increases regularly work. In bank it understand, but the credit all the same give, but any more under 6 Mexican percent, and under 17 Negro. This credit also is called as not so top-quality, and second-grade. Certainly, Shanikva it is especially violet, under what percent it will not pay money under the credit - under 17 or under 117. She simply wants поплатить couple of months, then quickly refinance the house, to pull out from under it эквити in pair thousand, to buy gold earrings and the old car and to go to mum in Mississipi, and further though the grass not to grow.
In the meantime, Washington Mjuchual l which has issued Shanikva the second-grade credit, packs all second-grade credits into highly remunerative securities (well and чё there, after all seventeen, a pancake, percent!) also sells them Cheiz Manhattan to Bank. And already from it they are bought by our old acquaintance Chezare Lohanuchchi who is assured that Cheiz Manhattan bullshit does not trade. And it on the of the rights because in textbooks of economy neither about Shanikva, nor about second-grade credits it is written nothing. In textbooks all participants of a market exchange are guided by the Protestant ethics, all the extremely fair and decent, on that all system and costs. Will not fall Yet.
Naive Chezare has faced rather severe rule "caveat emptor", which everyone learns on own skin. This rule says that let the buyer thinks of how not to run on a bullshit. Therefore before each purchase he should to itself order as in army: "to Stand! To be afraid!". But the manufacturer has the right to make anything you like, whether it be the commercial credit, the hypothecary loan, erotic massage and other "financial products" and to sell the rights to reception of dividends on these in the form of securities. And as the buyer of these papers will be the rights to realise, it it, the buyer, a problem. Therefore and caveat emptor. And if it in time not "caveat" it already any and not "emptor", and natural loser, also have dissolved it correctly.
All would be not so badly if the above described subtleties were fairly and are in detail described in textbooks on economy. Rules have the right to be the most rigid but if they are iron registered on them all the same it is possible to play and somehow to predict a situation.
But unfortunately, concepts "bullshit", "loser" and "distributing" do not meet in economic dictionaries because regular check of conscientiousness of intentions of participants of the market does not keep within the conceptual device monetaristic economy, and its some apologists even now piously believe, that the fat layer of speculators in the market never can cause an economic crisis, especially planetary scale, that the market settle and all will feed all.
Certainly, procedures of check of conscientiousness of intentions of participants of the market are established federal and USA's by the legislators which most part never in a life opened textbooks on macroeconomic. But as they and their close relatives - people rather well-founded also the procedures regulating the market, are under construction rather in unusual way. They are under construction so that I could not throw the bank belonging to the brother of the senator. Therefore the senator spends the law on which I can receive on credit without pledge no more than 400 dollars. 400 dollars are that black did not shout, that them discriminates on colour of a skin. You want the credit without pledge - here yours 400 dollars, you want more - give as a deposit the house. And if you will not pay, the bank will select at you all house, and not just the sum of not paid debt.
But the bank belonging to the brother of the senator, can put off Shanikva's debts in the form of a highly remunerative paper to everybody, though to the same Italian bank. Let then unfortunate Chezare goes to Louisiana to sell Shanikva the house at half price.
Here so somehow also it turns out, that poor people cannot make on rich copecks, but rich gain money on poor without problems. At first lend unfortunate, killed by god Shanikve, and then Shanikva debts without problems sell. As a result there is such unpleasant thing as inflation. The word "inflation" is translated as "inflation". Well, it is correctly translated, after all the clear has put - have inflated, and repeatedly, that is for all length of the credit animator.
And how the macroeconomic textbook suggests to struggle with this fatal phenomenon? And here, all right:
1. Change of a discount rate of loan percent Central bank;
2. Change of norm of reservation;
3. Release of the state securities (anybody yet has not forgotten state credit obligations?);
4. Central Bank operations in the open market;
If all previous has not helped the patient, the press of the above-named office (in this plan causes interest there is no time to provide the sounded offer a missing dollar cash with forces of Perm printing house Goznaka) joins on all power.
There is still, of course, a state tax policy, but it already as a matter of fact not macroeconomic, but the political regulator which it is frequent can worsen only a situation, definitively having finished real sector.
Well and on snack, nationalisation of financial institutions and a part of corporations after which the macroeconomic textbook can be thrown out safely in a garbage can together with adherents of a monetary paradigm, its written.
But earlier than all these not palatable things have happened, really it was impossible to make the elementary analysis: to look, what rates commercial banks give out credits? With what speed capitalisation of financial institutions is inflated? And if these rates five times as much exceed growth of real sector of economy for previous year after all it is clear, that 80 % of credits will not give never, and just for these percent capitalisation somewhere will be blown off. Where exactly it will be blown off, beforehand it is not known, how in game "musical chairs" it is not known, in what sequence of an ass of participants will fly by between seats.
Surprisingly, but until when in air the ominous silence hangs, all feverishly give out and receive credits and do not believe, that music will sometime come to an end. And can be and trust, but after all the senator the hand cannot spend the law on which its brother-banker cannot make good grandmas on Shanikva and Petrovich!
Such feeling results, that in the world there are two realities.
One are macroeconomic textbooks to which it is written as to provide uninterrupted circulation of money and an exchange of the goods and services during rather quiet times. In them the make-up lays an equal layer on all face, and the market - well pure panacea and paradise on the Earth.
And the second - in which really there are both bilks, and louts, and distributings, and bullshits, and speculators. But after all - what nevertheless force of a printing word! While bunko has not entered into textbooks as a part of modern economy, all for some reason think, that it - the exception to the rules, and collisions created by it have private character.
And even when circles on the water, started up by speculators, grow till the sizes of a tsunami, passing from private character in global, anybody still does not call things by their proper names, for it is equivalent to loss of the person. Instead of shouting "Have thrown! Have plundered! Return our money! To the answer of thieves!", shout "Crisis! Save! Help!". And the state redeems at financial institutions puffed up papers for cash dollars to continue crediting process without which all economy will stop. And than puffed up the cash which has been laid out by the state, one леший knows. It would be desirable to hope, what not debts Shanikva and Petrovich.
But an essence of my article at all in that to talk about macroeconomic, and in discussing basic principles which define it. These principles are individualism and a competition. Individualism means the right of the businessman to make all that is not forbidden under the law exclusively for the sake of own profit. The competition means struggle against other businessmen for a place under the sun and money of the customer.
The last means, that in a prize there will be that subject of the market who takes on it a ceiling price at the minimum investments, that as a result will give the maximum profit. Certainly, sale a bullshit, that is bunco is that business which gives a maximum have arrived to the shortest time. The following on profitableness business is already mentioned erotic massage. It is a high time to write it is unique the true economic formula reflecting a modern condition of economy:
Individualism + the Competition = Bunco with erotic massage
When at the closing stage of reorganisation the descendant of the author of "Destiny of the drummer" offered Russia market system in that kind in which it exists in the liberal countries, he has for some reason forgotten this formula to draw on a board, and Russians had to remove it empirically.
The market and individualism are private displays known Marx dyads "life and consciousness". Individualism is a consciousness, ideology of the person living in the liberal country. The market is a social and physical mechanism by means of which the individual psychology and general ideology of individualism is realised. If it is short, it is arrangement of people to sell each other products of the work, and success of sales and purchases is the unique purpose of existence of the individual and a unique measure of its vital success and the public status.
The market which has affirmed as consciousness of the person is a condition of soul when the person hides from others and even from itself, that it - a ruthless predator whom the profit interests only. Instead it convinces itself (himself) and others, that it works for the blessing of the consumer and all society as a whole.
In this myth long time Americans trusted, this myth without a moment's hesitation was accepted by Russia in the end of reorganisation in quality of a new ideal, and only when "bunced economy" has led to global crisis, Americans have understood, that it is necessary to change something urgently. Meanwhile to begin with, they have changed the white president on black, and many seriously hope, that it will help them to solve all problems.
What for the trade secret is necessary.
Trade secret it is not simple custom of business dealing. It is a creed of any businessman, an integral part of a cult of private business. Time-honoured custom to hide the business from extraneous eyes gives superfluous confirmation to that fact, that the satisfaction of requirements of the buyer who has come on a commodity market and services, is only the collateral purpose of a market mechanism. Its main purpose as Charles Makrs has proved, the satisfaction of requirement of the businessman in reception of the greatest profit is, it is unimportant in what way and what price for a society as a whole...
Recently the Internet annals has replenished with such heart-breaking history:
In one computer firm of an average manner there was a practice to put in a box with the computer the short description of its characteristics on a simple language - for sellers (have typed teapots). And here the spiteful client once rushes, with the computer bought recently and demands immediately to return money, showing the piece of paper which has been found out at the bottom of a box. The piece of paper said: "Motherboart a shit, video adapter a sediment." Slip into lout ".
In this case the enterprise trade secret - real characteristics of its goods - primordially Russian невзначаем became known to the buyer and has caused its just anger. The case, of course, funny and outstanding but if to rummage in an essence it is possible to draw a conclusion, that the trade secret is the law rather respected by a society, on which those who humbug smb, under the law is no by the rights to learn who and as them humbug smb. Legitimacy of this law still it was never called into question as everyone always hopes faster, adroitly and is the deepest move up near , and thus to save from an encroachment own vulnerable part, carefully keeping as fiduciary its diameter, a step of a carving and orientation in space.
It is possible to object certainly, that trade secret observance has also a positive side. That it is necessary in competitive struggle. We will admit, any firm has groped good price strategy and has learnt to buy more cheaply raw materials, to sell the goods more expensively and does not hasten to share this knowledge with competitors that is why wishes to keep as fiduciary the sums of transactions.
Whether but this company makes the best production on a price and quality parity? After all if the market economy purpose really is the best and uttermost satisfaction of requirements of the buyer the competition should proceed in the tideway of open struggle for the cheapest and qualitative goods, instead of through impudence of the shopkeepers, which results it is impossible to advertise before public that have not thrown stones, especially to show to competitors that they from fury not cheeky and have not started to arrive precisely also.
Legal and sacral a trade secret deprives of fair businessmen of possibility to catch the dishonest competitor who has swindled the supplier or the buyer or has bribed the authorities to leave from taxes or has done still any dirty tricks which have allowed it to receive more than profit than on the average on branch. Thus, competitors too are compelled to make dirty tricks under cover of a trade secret if they wish to be kept in business.
To hide fair transactions in general there is no need. After all if any party does not abuse trust another or a lack of its knowledge, the price and conditions of any transaction will be close to averages on branch. And the competition in the market will be not war on destruction, and only constant signal that it is necessary to behave in a tone, not to be lazy and work, if wish to be kept in business. And after all more rigid competition, as a matter of fact, also is not necessary: it causes only problems, such as unemployment and social intensity.
And now we will admit, that any firm has managed to lower production costs and for the account of it can reduce the price and thus to receive superprofit. If the market really worked for the blessing of the buyer the innovation would be picked up by all branch and has turned back the big economy as a whole on the country. But at subjects of the market absolutely other purposes. Each of them tries to use technical innovations to crush under itself all market and to banish from it competitors. Therefore innovations are doomed to remain for ever a trade secret if only they will be not not stolen by competitors. In the state with a planned economy of such problem, certainly, does not exist.
The trade secret directly specifies in individualistic, injurious spirit of business and simultaneously with it is sanctimonious character of the morals feeding capitalist business. Firmness of a trade secret is a firm confidence of businessmen that they will manage to swindle under its cover adroitly and is more impudent than competitors. If they doubted it or did not wish to dodge, they would erect for a long time a transparency of transactions in a law rank.
Under cover of a trade secret bank Washington Mjuchual can is easy slip into not given Shanikva debts Чейз to Manhattan, and they be to sell them further on a chain of musical chairs. The idea of trade badly smells as another's debts even at full clearness who to whom should, and than will give. And to buy and sell debts which it is not known as have been cooked up are an employment on venerability degree about same as насрать in the letter, to stick in an envelope and to send by mail.
The global crisis of economy created hush up by speculators that the fact has gradually started to reach the world community was necessary, that secret character of business dealing in planetary scales - means bullshit. Anybody for some reason did not guess it, while "the letter luck", pretending to be a valuable paper, has not flown about a terrestrial orbit one million times and not засрало from height of the flight all world financial institutions.
And only now, when to bullshit already has more or less come and has seemed in all indescribable beauty, the command of liquidators bullshit (it is not known still the truth who whom liquidates), hastily run together in Washington on the "twenty" summit, has accepted the total declaration with the plan which assumes, I quote:
"Level increase transparency and the accountability, strengthening of qualitative regulation, coordination encouragement in the financial markets, strengthening of the international cooperation, reforming of the international financial organisations".
Well here still you will tell?
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